China has said sales of new F-16s to Taiwan is a "red
line" issue for them and supposedly the Trump Administration is about to
cross that line.
Α report from Bloomberg states that Taiwan's recent request for 60 new-build advanced Block 70 F-16s
will be approved by the Trump Administration. If this sale actually
comes to pass, it would be in addition to the country's 145 Block 20
F-16A/B aircraft that are currently being upgraded
to the nearly identical F-16V standard. China has long said it draws a
"red line" at the U.S. furnishing new-build advanced F-16 to Taiwan. If
the deal is approved, it is sure to infuriate Beijing at a particularly
contentious moment in U.S.-Chinese relations history. An ongoing and
wide-ranging trade dispute, as well as increased tensions with its
neighbors, its ongoing military buildup, the unending nuclear standoff
with North Korea, and its island building campaign in the South China
Sea are just some of the factors that have put major pressure on the
already less than sturdy relationship between the two countries.
The deal to upgrade Taiwan's
aging fleet of F-16s came after the Obama Administration rejected
Taipei's wish to buy new F-16s. In reality, the upgrade gives Taiwan
nearly the same capabilities of new-build F-16s, including the
installation of AN/APG-83 SABR
active electronically scanned array radars, fully upgraded cockpit
displays and mission computers, Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing System
(JHMCS), advanced defensive suite, data-links, and so on.
Lockheed Martin
Because
of the age of Taiwan's F-16s, the deal also includes a structural
upgrade and other airframe modification work. What it lacks is the F-16
Block 70's 29,000-pound or even 32,000-pound thrust class engine,
conformal fuel tanks, and the airframe enhancements that have come as a
result of decades of F-16 production. Part of the $5.3B deal does
include a study to see if the jet's engines could be upgraded. So far,
no operational F-16A/B has ever been upgraded with the more powerful
engines.
The entire list of items in the sale was released by the U.S. Government. It reads:
"The
Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States
has requested a retrofit of 145 F-16A/B aircraft that includes sale of:
176 Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radars; 176 Embedded
Global Positioning System Inertial Navigation Systems; 176 ALQ-213
Electronic Warfare Management systems; upgrade 82 ALQ-184 Electronic
Countermeasures (ECM) pods to incorporate Digital Radio Frequency Memory
(DRFM) technology or purchase new ECM pods (AN/ALQ-211(V)9 Airborne
Integrated Defensive Electronic Warfare Suites (AIDEWS) with DRFM, or
AN/ALQ-131 pods with DRFM); 86 tactical data link terminals; upgrade 28
electro-optical infrared targeting Sharpshooter pods; 26 AN/AAQ-33
SNIPER Targeting Systems or AN/AAQ-28 LITENING Targeting Systems; 128
Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing Systems; 128 Night Vision Goggles; 140
AIM-9X SIDEWINDER Missiles; 56 AIM-9X Captive Air Training Missiles; 5
AIM-9X Telemetry kits; 16 GBU-31V1 Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs)
kits; 80 GBU-38 JDAM kits; Dual Mode/ Global Positioning System
Laser-Guided Bombs (16 GBU-10 Enhanced PAVEWAY II or GBU-56 Laser JDAM,
80 GBU-12 Enhanced PAVEWAY II or GBU-54 Laser JDAM, 16 GBU-24 Enhanced
PAVEWAY III); 64 CBU-105 Sensor Fused Weapons with Wind-Corrected
Munition Dispensers (WDMD); 153 LAU-129 Launchers with missile
interface; upgrade of 158 APX-113 Advanced Identification Friend or Foe
Combined Interrogator Transponders; and HAVE GLASS II applications. Also
included are: ammunition, alternate mission equipment, engineering and
design study on replacing existing F100-PW-220 engines with F100-PW-229
engines, update of Modular Mission Computers, cockpit multifunction
displays, communication equipment, Joint Mission Planning Systems,
maintenance, construction, repair and return, aircraft tanker support,
aircraft ferry services, aircraft and ground support equipment, spare
and repair parts, publications and technical documentation, personnel
training and training equipment, U.S. Government and contractor
engineering, technical, and logistics support, test equipment, site
surveys, and other related elements of logistics support."
Taiwan
received the first of its upgraded F-16s, now designed F-16V, in
October of 2018. The installation of upgrade kits is being done locally
by the state-owned Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC).
You can read more about the deal in this past article of ours.
The move to upgrade Taiwan's Vipers staved off what could have been a
significant geopolitical spat between the U.S. and China. But that could
all change if Taiwan ends up getting its entire F-16 fleet upgraded and
at least 60 brand new late block F-16s on top of it.
From the first days of the Trump Administration, it was clear
that the traditional walking of the fine line between being an ally to
Taiwan and respecting America's largest trading partner's strategic
concerns would be a thing of the past. Some have cheered this outright.
Some have decried that not selling the same level of weaponry to
Taiwan—supposedly a major democratic ally in a turbulent region—that the
U.S. offers to Pakistan
is akin to straight-up appeasement. Others warn that such weapons deals
do little more than inflame the delicate and complex geopolitical
relationship between the U.S., China, and Taiwan.
At the same time, China's President Xi Jinping has made is crystal clear that reunification is not only China's goal, but military force is on the table as a method to achieve that goal. These are ominous words for comparatively tiny Taiwan, an island country that is increasingly encircled by China's growing military might with each passing day.
Taiwan and the U.S. plan to hold talks
late this summer about how to best push back against China's mounting
push for reunification, a move that has angered Beijing. At the same
time, the U.S. has stepped up its own military displays of force in the
region, with its warships making multiple high-profile transits through the Taiwan Strait.
It will be very
interesting to see how China reacts if the U.S. crosses their so-called
red line and approves the F-16 sale, and how that act will impact the
maelstrom of issues that currently hang over Chinese-U.S. relations.
There is no doubt that such an order will come as great news to Lockheed's newly relocated F-16 plant
in South Carolina. The line had called Fort Worth home for decades, but
it was downscaled and moved recently in order to make room for F-35
production and to achieve new efficiencies based on reduced output. 60
jets will provide years of work for the new production facility which is
currently fulfilling an order for Bahrain.
After
the Obama Administration inked the deal for the upgraded F-16s and the
election of Donald Trump, Taiwan had set its sites on acquiring the
F-35, and the B model in particular. Its short takeoff and vertical
landing capabilities fit Taiwan's dispersed combat operations strategy
during a major conflict when its air bases will be pummeled by Chinese
ballistic and cruises missiles. But it was eventually decided the jets
were too immature developmentally for Taiwan's very pressing needs (they
may have been all too right)
and they would be very costly to acquire and sustain, let alone the
hurdle of getting the sale cleared through Washingon. So pushing for the
latest and greatest F-16 models became Taipei's focus once again.
During an all-out conflict
between Taiwan and China, many people question if any fighter aircraft
type could really hold back the increasing might of the Chinese
military. But others claim that leaving Taiwan without the weapons it
needs to even have a shot of defending itself only invites Chinese
aggression. With critical trade talks between the U.S. and China
underway, we can't underscore the negative timing of such a deal. Even
if the Trump Administration were to approve the F-16 deal, one would
think it could wait until after a trade deal is signed, or at least
after some sort of preconceived internal deadline has passed.
Then
again, maybe the Trump Administration is dangling the possibility of an
advanced F-16 sale to Taiwan as a lever to get Beijing to capitulate to
certain trade demands that they haven't been willing to agree to even
after many months of negotiations. But if that were the case, it would
look terrible and set an awful precedent if the F-16 deal was first
tacitly agreed to and then denied after a trade deal with China
was done. It would literally convey a clear message that the U.S. is
willing to sell its friends down the river for trade deals.
Toshiro Aoki/Wikicommons
Taiwanese F-16A taxiing.
There
may be another option that has been rumored in the past that may be far
more possible now than before—selling or leasing Taiwan surplus F-15C/D
Eagles that have been upgraded with AESA radars. These aircraft do not
have a robust air-to-ground capability and keeping it that way could be
part of the export deal, but they are far more capable than even the
latest F-16 in the air-to-air realm. Such an arrangement may provide the
right mix of capabilities and less-than-new hardware to keep China from
absolutely losing it. It would also uphold the 1979 law that states the U.S. can only sell Taiwan weapons "of a defensive character."
The F-15C/Ds can be upgraded with more air-to-air missile carriage capabilities and even conformal fuel tanks.
This would provide Taiwan with a near ideal asset for swatting down
large volumes of Chinese fighters, drones, and cruise missiles during a
conflict while also being able to stay on station for hours at a time
over the Taiwan Strait. In other words, with upgraded F-15C/Ds, Taiwan
gets the most powerful air-to-air fighter radar in the world,
persistence, and the magazine depth needed to at least make a dent when
it comes to defending the island against a Chinese onslaught.
USAF
F-15C.
Surplus F-15C/Ds are in limited supply and none have the new radars. But if the USAF gets its new F-15X fighters, selling some of the surplus F-15C/D models, along with a structural and technological upgrade, to Taiwan would make sense.
Augmenting that purchase with surplus AV-8B Harriers from the Marine Corps, which can also be modified to carry modular AESA
radars, would give Taiwan an aircraft that is proven, efficient, and
extremely effective when it comes to highly dispersed combat operations.
You can read more about the USMC's soon to be surplus Harriers here.
So, there may be additional potential options for Taiwan, some of which are more relevant now than ever.
Regardless,
it seems increasingly clear that the 'more fighters for Taiwan' issue
is going to become a major news item in the weeks to come.
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